Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
